Fitch Ratings Lowers India’s Medium-Term Growth Outlook to 6.4% Over Next Five Years.

Economy Business | Dated: 25 May 2025

Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has increased India’s potential GDP growth forecast for the next five years (2025–2029) from 6.2% to 6.4%.

🎯 Key Highlights:

  • - The upward revision is driven by rising employment rates and a slight increase in the working-age population, which enhance India’s economic growth potential.
  • - India’s projected GDP growth rates are expected to be 6.4% in 2025, 6.3% in 2026, and 6.4% in 2027, reinforcing its position as a leading growth performer globally.
  • - Fitch expects TFP growth in India to gradually slow down and stabilize at its long-term average of 1.5%, suggesting more moderate gains in efficiency going forward.

💡 Other Important Facts:

  • (i) Total Factor Productivity (TFP)—also known as Multi-Factor Productivity (MFP)—measures how efficiently economic inputs like labor and capital are converted into output (GDP). It is a key indicator of economic efficiency.
  • (ii) Despite India’s upgrade, Fitch has revised its five-year growth forecast for emerging markets as a group down from 4.0% to 3.9%, indicating broader global challenges.
  • (iii) This revision highlights India’s improving fundamentals and its capacity to sustain strong, long-term economic growth among emerging market peers.

📚 Test Your Knowledge:

According to Fitch Ratings (May 2025), what is India's revised medium-term GDP growth forecast for the next five years?

Correct Answer: 6.4%

🚀 Quick Recap: